Climate Change and Wine Regions: Which Regions Will Disappear, and Which Will Rise?

The wine industry is witnessing unprecedented changes across vineyards worldwide. Global wine production fell to its lowest level since 1961 in 2023 due to extreme weather events such as early frost, heavy rainfall, and drought. All these factors significantly impact yields.

Grapes are among the most sensitive crops to climate shifts, flourishing in a remarkably narrow range of weather conditions. Consequently, changing temperatures are triggering dramatic shifts in the annual growth cycle. Research shows that the growing cycle (budbreak, flowering, véraison) now occurs 5-10 days earlier for every 1°C increase in annual temperature. This acceleration creates a troubling ripple effect—earlier budbreak exposes vines to damaging late-spring frosts, while earlier harvest moves ripening into the hottest months of summer.

Furthermore, the biochemistry of grapes is fundamentally changing. In Napa and Bordeaux, sugar concentrations began increasing significantly in the 1980s, coinciding with abrupt temperature increases. Although higher sugar content creates riper fruit and higher-alcohol wines, there’s a concerning tipping point—anthocyanins (colour compounds) show a clear maximum at sugar levels of 200-225 g/l, after which colours actually degrade.

Drought conditions are equally problematic. Heat stress under water-deficient conditions results in declining yields, smaller berries, and quality issues. The 2021 frost in France affected approximately 80% of vineyards, with Burgundy experiencing yield reductions of nearly 50% compared to the previous year.

Despite these challenges, warmer temperatures have benefited cooler regions. Indeed, until recently, warming has generally improved vintage ratings and reduced quality variations between years. This reality underscores a complex climate relationship where modest warming benefits some while devastating others, essentially creating wine industry winners and losers as regional climate suitability shifts dramatically.

Southern Europe

Southern Europe stands at the frontline of wine’s climate crisis, with research indicating that approximately 90% of traditional wine regions in coastal and lowland regions of Spain, Italy, Greece, and southern California could vanish by the end of this century due to excessive drought and frequent heatwaves. This existential threat is already manifesting in production figures across Europe.

Mediterranean Basin

The Mediterranean basin faces particularly dire circumstances as warming there will be more aggressive than global averages. Subsequently, these regions might transition to climates unsuitable for traditional viticulture, with only minor portions (less than 20%) potentially salvageable by shifting to higher elevations.

California

California’s renowned wine industry is likewise under threat. Research suggests the net suitable area for wine production could shrink by up to 50% by 2050, with southern regions becoming entirely unsuitable for producing good-quality wine in economically sustainable conditions if warming exceeds 2°C.

South Africa

Outside Europe and California, South Africa’s situation is equally concerning. The country has experienced reduced vineyard size for eight consecutive years since 2015 due to severe droughts. Additionally, rising temperatures have accelerated ripening processes, creating imbalances in sugar levels and acidity.

The vulnerability of these regions stems primarily from a combination of environmental factors and regulatory limitations. Many traditional wine regions employ rigid geographical indication systems that restrict grape variety diversity, thereby increasing sensitivity to climate shifts. Therefore, regions committed to specific varieties like Burgundy with Pinot Noir face heightened existential risks as suitable growing conditions are gradually disappearing.

As traditional wine territories face existential threats, an unexpected silver lining emerges – the birth of entirely new wine-producing regions. The United Kingdom has become one of the most striking beneficiaries, with its wine industry reported as one of the fastest-growing agricultural sectors in the country. British vineyards are producing increasingly reliable wines with dramatically improved quality, a transformation unimaginable just decades ago.

This geographical shift follows a predictable pattern. Wine-growing areas are moving poleward, with Northern Europe, New Zealand, and Western North America expected to see their suitable wine-growing areas multiply by a factor of 2 to 3. Even Sweden might eventually have thousands of acres under vine, whilst German viticulture now stretches as far north as Kiel.

Adapted viticulture practices in established regions

For established regions, adaptation has become essential. Bordeaux has taken the remarkable step of authorising six new grape varieties better suited to warmer conditions. These newcomers include drought-resistant varieties like Touriga Nacional, though interestingly, Portugal’s Douro Valley (Touriga’s home) is simultaneously seeking alternatives as their climate becomes excessively hot.

Beyond variety selection, vineyards are deploying sophisticated adaptation techniques. Many are shifting to higher altitudes where cooler temperatures preserve crucial acidity, whilst others modify vineyard orientation to reduce sun exposure.

Perhaps most promising is the research into rootstock development. Some existing rootstocks, like 140 Ruggeri or 110 Richter, demonstrate significant drought resistance, but creating new rootstocks with enhanced resilience has become a research priority.

These adaptations highlight an industry in transformation. Traditional regions constrained by appellation regulations face the greatest challenges, whilst emerging areas enjoy greater flexibility to innovate. For wine enthusiasts, this shifting landscape promises both loss and discovery. Familiar classics may disappear, but entirely new wine expressions will surely rise in their place.

Climate change undoubtedly represents both an existential threat and a transformative opportunity for the global wine industry. Traditional wine regions face unprecedented challenges, with southern European and Californian vineyards potentially becoming economically unviable by this century.

Nevertheless, this geographical redistribution creates fertile ground for entirely new wine territories. The evidence clearly points toward a dramatic reshaping of viticulture as we know it. Earlier harvests, altered biochemistry, and increased vulnerability to extreme weather events have already begun affecting established regions. Yet simultaneously, formerly marginal areas like the UK have flourished, with vineyard area expanding in just five years.

Though traditional wine strongholds might disappear, the industry demonstrates remarkable resilience through adaptation. Whether through planting at higher elevations, introducing drought-resistant grape varieties, or developing climate-appropriate rootstocks, vintners worldwide are finding creative solutions to preserve their craft. Bordeaux’s bold move to authorise new grape varieties exemplifies this pragmatic approach to changing conditions.

Above all, the wine world stands at a pivotal crossroads. While we may mourn the potential loss of historic wine expressions from regions like Mediterranean Europe or southern California, we must also anticipate the emergence of entirely new wine styles and traditions from Sweden, northern Germany, and beyond. The coming decades will undoubtedly transform our understanding of terroir, challenging preconceptions while offering wine enthusiasts an expanded palette of flavours born from climate adaptation.